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摘要:
1928~1929年夏季, 中国北方(34°~45°N, 106°~122°E)和华南(20°~30°N, 106°~122°E)地区遭受了严重的干旱, 此次旱灾是中国近代十大灾荒之一。由于早期观测资料缺乏, 数值模拟成为研究此次旱灾形成机制的重要手段。本研究诊断分析了挪威地球系统模式(NorESM1-F)过去千年试验中1928年和1929年的模拟。结果表明: 模拟的1928年与1929年夏季中国东部季风区旱涝空间分布与历史记录重建非常相似; 即1928年夏季, 降雨集中在长江与黄河之间, 而1929年夏季, 降雨集中在长江中下游; 其他地区降雨偏少。重建和观测资料证实NorESM1-F能够较好地模拟中高纬海表面温度异常; 同时, 模拟结果显示, 这两年夏季北大西洋高纬地区以及北美西海岸的海表面温度偏高是造成这两年干旱的控制因素之一。它激发出影响东亚夏季降水的遥相关波列。1928年夏季, 明显的正位相欧亚遥相关, 导致东亚大槽加深、西太平洋副热带高压南撤、东亚夏季风减弱, 并最终导致1928年夏季降水异常减少; 而1929年夏季, 中纬度的丝绸之路遥相关波列(SRP)使200hPa南亚高压加强东伸、中国东部沿海地区出现正位势高度异常、西太平洋副热带高压西伸, 导致长江流域降雨增多, 中国北方和华南地区降雨减少。
Abstract:In the summer of 1928 and 1929, Northern(34°~45°N, 106°~122°E)and Southern(20°~30°N, 106°~122°E)China suffered from a severe drought. The mechanism of this drought remains unclear due to the lack of early observational data. However, numerical simulation has become an important method to investigate the mechanism behind. Here, we analyzed the last millennium experiment conducted with the fast version of the Norwegian Earth System Model(NorESM1-F), tree ring records from the west coast of North America, observed temperature from Greenland, and Palmer Drought Index from Climatic Research Unit. Our simulation showed that the rainfall remarkably reduced in the south of the Yangtze River and north of the Yellow River in 1928, and significantly decreased in Southern China and Northern China in 1929. The simulated spatial distribution of drought agreed well with historical records in the monsoon region of Eastern China. Furthermore, NorESM1-F well simulated the sea surface temperature anomalies in the middle and high latitudes, inconsistent with the tree ring records from the west coast of North America, as well as the observed temperature data from Greenland. The relatively high sea surface temperature occurred in the high latitudes of the North Atlantic and the west coast of North America in the summer of 1928 and 1929, possibly stimulating the teleconnection wave train that affected the summer precipitation in East Asia. In the summer of 1928, a positive phase of Eurasian teleconnection contributed to the deepening of the East Asian trough, the southward shift of the Western Pacific Subtropical High, and the weakening of the East Asian Summer Monsoon, thus eventually leading to an abnormal decrease in precipitation in the south of the Yangtze River and north of the Yellow River. In the summer of 1929, a Silk Road teleconnection wave train in the mid-latitudes, caused the eastward positioning of the South Asia High, the positive height anomaly over the coastal areas of Eastern China, as well the westward extension of the Western Pacific Subtropical High. Eventually, rainfall increased in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River but decreased in Northern and Southern China.
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图 1
1901~2000年5~9月中国东部(21°~45°N，106°~124°E)sc_PDSI的经验正交分解
Figure 1.
Empirical orthogonal decomposition of sc_PDSI in Eastern China(21°~45°N, 106°~124°E)from May to September, 1901~2000: (a)First mode of CRU; (b)Second mode of CRU; (c)First mode of NorESM1-F; (d)Second mode of NorESM1-F
图 2
NorESM1-F模拟的过去600年5~9月的sc_PDSI标准化时间序列(实线)
Figure 2.
Standardized sc_PDSI time series simulated by NorESM1-F from May to September of the past 600 years(solid curve): (a)The Eastern China(21°~45°N, 106°~124°E); (b)The Yellow River Basin; (c)The Yangtze River Basin. Horizontal axis is year, and vertical axes are sc_PDSI. Dashed lines indicate one standard deviation, and red and blue fonts represent the year that the simulation matches the extreme drought and flood events recorded in history documents, respectively
图 3
模拟的1850~1950年中国东部季风区(21°~45°N，106°~124°E)5~9月的sc_PDSI时间序列
Figure 3.
NorESM1-F simulated sc_PDSI time series from May to September in the monsoon region of Eastern China(21°~45°N, 106°~124°E)from 1850 to 1950. Horizontal axis is year; and vertical axes are sc_PDSI.
图 4
1928~1929年夏季中国东部季风区sc_PDSI，(a)和(b)CRU结果，(c)和(d)NorESM1-F模拟
Figure 4.
Sc_PDSI in monsoon region of Eastern China in the summer of 1928 and 1929. (a)and (b) CRU results; (c)and (d) NorESM1-F simulations.
图 5
1928年(a)和1929年(b)模拟的夏季海表面温度异常(单位：℃)(图中黑色星号表示为温度记录的地理位置)，以及北美西海岸反映夏季温度的树轮宽度指数[45~50] (c)和格陵兰岛夏季(MJJAS)温度[37](d)，其中Tasiilaq站点缺失1910年和1923年数据
Figure 5.
Simulated sea surface temperature anomolies(units: ℃)in (a)1928 and (b)1929 summer. The black asterisks in the (a) and (b) indicate the geographic location of the sites used in (c) and (d). (c)Tree ring data reflecting summer temperature in the west coast of North America[45~50]; (d)MJJAS temperature recorded in Greenland, and among them, Tasiilaq site was missing in 1910 and 1923[37]
图 6
1928年夏季降水异常(单位：mm/month)，(c)1928年夏季整层(地表到300 hPa)水汽通量输送异常(矢量；单位：kg/(m·s))和相应量级异常(阴影)，(e)1928年夏季沿(106°~124°E)平均的垂直风(矢量；单位：m/s)和垂直速度(阴影；单位：×10-3 Pa/s)异常；(b、d、f)同(a、c、e)，但为1929年夏季
Figure 6.
Composite anomalies in 1928 summer of (a) precipitation(units: mm/month, (c)vertically(from the surface to 300 hPa)integrated water vapor transport(vectors; units: kg/(m·s))and corresponding magnitude anomalies(shading), (e)vertical-horizontal cross section averaged along 106°~124°E for the summer vertical wind(vectors; units: m/s)and omega(shading; units: ×10-3 Pa/s); (b, d, f)as in(a, c, e)but for 1929.
图 7
1928年夏季位势高度(H，阴影；单位：gpm)与风场(uv，矢量；单位：m/s)异常(a)850 hPa、(c)500 hPa和(e)200 hPa；(b、d、f)同(a、c、e)，但为1929年夏季
Figure 7.
Anomalies geopotential height(H, shading; units: gpm)and wind fields(uv, vectors; units: m/s)at (a)850 hPa, (c)500 hPa and(e)200 hPa in the summer of 1928;(b, d, f)as in(a, c, e)but for the summer of 1929
图 8
1928年夏季西太副高(橙实线，单位：gpm)与气候态(黑实线，单位：gpm)以及(b)1929年西太副高(橙实线，单位：gpm)与气候态(黑实线，单位：gpm)，南亚高压(紫实线，单位：gpm)与气候态(绿实线，单位：gpm)
Figure 8.
The West Pacific subtropical high(orange solid line, units: gpm)and the climatology(black solid line, units: gpm)in the summer of 1928; (b)The West Pacific subtropical high(orange solid line, units: gpm)and climatology(black solid line, units: gpm), the South Asian High(purple solid line, units: gpm)and climatology(green solid line, units: gpm)in the summer of 1929
图 9
1928年夏季(a)500 hPa流函数(阴影，单位: 106 m2/s)与T-N WAF(矢量，单位：m2/s2)异常，(c)700 hPa垂直速度(W，阴影，单位：10-3 m/s)异常，(e)经向风速(vwnd, 阴影，单位：m/s)与T-N WAF(矢量，单位：m2/s2)沿(50°~70°N)的垂直截面；1929年夏季(b)200 hPa经向风速(vwnd, 阴影，单位：m/s)与T-N WAF(矢量，单位：m2/s2)异常，(d)700 hPa垂直速度(W，阴影，单位：10-3 m/s)异常，(f)经向风速(vwnd, 阴影，单位：m/s)与T-N WAF(矢量，单位：m2/s2)沿(55°~70°N)的垂直截面
Figure 9.
Anomalies of (a)500 hPa stream function(shading; units: 106 m2/s)and T-N WAF(vectors; units: m2/s2), (c)700 hPa vertical velocity(W, shading; units: 10-3 m/s), (e)vertical-horizontal cross section averaged along(50°~70°N)for meridional wind(vwnd, shading; units: m/s)and T-N WAF(vectors; units: m2/s2)in the summer of 1928. Anomalies of (b)200 hPa meridional wind(vwnd, shading; units: m/s)and T-N WAF(vectors; units: m2/s2), (d)700 hPa vertical velocity(W, shading; units: 10-3 m/s), (f)vertical-horizontal cross section averaged along(55°~70°N)for meridional wind(vwnd, shading; units: m/s)and T-N WAF (vectors; units: m2/s2)in the summer of 1929
表 1
1928年与1929年夏季(5月到9月)EU、SRP、EASM、WPSH-Ⅰ和WPSH-Ⅱ指数
Table 1.
EU, SRP, EASM, WPSH-Ⅰ and WPSH-Ⅱ indices of MJJAS in 1928 and 1929
Year EU SR EASM WPSH-Ⅰ WPSH-Ⅱ 1928年 1.85 -0.29 -0.71 -0.8 0.07 1929年 -0.29 1.07 0.20 -0.07 -0.73 
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