Comparison of changes of Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation between two typical abrupt climate events in Holocene
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摘要:
利用通用气候系统模式（Community Climate System Model version 3，简称CCSM3）模拟的TraCE-21ka全新世以来的试验数据，分析了全新世两次突变事件（8.2 ka B.P.和4.2 ka B.P.）前后（分别为9200~8800 a B.P.、8800~8000 a B.P.和4800~4500 a B.P.、4500~4000 a B.P.）北半球夏季（6~8月）气温和季风降水的时空变化特征，并通过对比4个单因子（地球轨道参数、温室气体浓度、大陆冰盖和淡水注入）敏感性试验结果来分析北半球季风降水变化的成因。结果表明：1）两次典型突变事件前后欧亚大陆中高纬大范围的地表气温均明显下降，但是8.2 ka B.P.事件的降温程度大于4.2 ka B.P.事件，此外，在8.2 ka B.P.事件下北美中部有明显的增温，而在4.2 ka B.P.事件下该地区为降温；2）两次典型突变事件前后的北半球季风降水变化的空间分布类似，主要表现为北美季风区、北非季风区西部和印度季风降水一致减少，而东亚季风降水呈现"南涝北旱"的分布型；3）两次典型突变事件前后环流场变化的空间型相似，但是4.2 ka B.P.事件的环流强度变化明显弱于8.2 ka B.P.事件；4）8.2 ka B.P.事件下北半球季风降水变化主要是淡水注入所导致，而4.2 ka B.P.事件主要由于地球轨道参数和气候系统内部变率的共同影响。
Abstract:Based on the results of TraCE-21ka simulated by Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3), the spatial pattern of the Northern Hemisphere summer (JJA) temperature and monsoon precipitation changes of two typical abrupt climate changes in the "8.2 ka B. P. event" (9200~8800 a B.P. versus 8800~8000 a B. P.) and the "4.2 ka B. P. event" (4800~4500 a B.P. versus 4500~4000 a B. P.) were analyzed. Through comparing with four single-forcing experiments (Orbital Forcing, Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases, Ice Sheets and Meltwater Forcing), the possible mechanism of the changes of Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon precipitation were discussed as well. The results showed that:(1) The surface temperature dropped significantly over the mid-high latitudes of the Eurasian continent when two typical abrupt climate events occurred, but the 8.2 ka B. P. event cooled greater than the 4.2 ka B. P. event. In addition, there is significant temperature increase in the central North America under the 8.2 ka B. P. event, but the area is cooling down in the 4.2 ka B. P. event. (2) The spatial distribution of monsoon precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere was similar for two typical abrupt climate events. The precipitation of the North American monsoon, west of North African monsoon and the Indian monsoon presented consistent reduction. The East Asian monsoon precipitation presented a dipole pattern of "Southern-flood and Northern-drought". (3) The spatial pattern of the atmospheric circulation was similar for two typical abrupt climate events, but the intensity of the atmospheric circulation of the 4.2 ka B. P. event is significantly weaker than the 8.2 ka B. P. event. (4) The Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation change for the 8.2 ka B. P. event was mainly caused by freshwater injection, while the Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation was mainly affected by the changes of orbital forcing and internal variability for the 4.2 ka B. P. event.
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Key words:
- Holocene /
- abrupt climate event /
- Northern Hemisphere /
- monsoon precipitation
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图 1
TraCE-AF模拟的北半球夏季(6~8月)地表气温标准化距平时间序列
Figure 1.
Time series of normalized anomalies of summer(JJA)mean surface temperature in the Northern Hemisphere derived from TraCE-AF outputs. The black line represents 101-year running mean, the hatched represents the episode before abrupt climate event, and the stippled represents the episode after abrupt climate event. (a)8.2 ka B. P. anomalies(relative to 9200~8000 a B. P.), (b)4.2 ka B. P. anomalies(relative to 5000~3600 a B. P.)
图 2
北半球季风区及北非子季风区(N1)、亚洲子季风区(N2)和北美子季风区(N3)的范围(阴影所示)
Figure 2.
Northern Hemisphere monsoon domain, the North African sub-monsoon domain(N1), the Asian sub-monsoon domain(N2), and the North American sub-monsoon domain (N3)(shown in the shaded area)
图 3
1979~1990年TraCE-AF模拟(a，c)和观测/再分析资料(b，d；为CMAP-GPCP集成降水数据)夏季降水气候态的对比
Figure 3.
Comparison of summer mean precipitation climatology(1979~1990 A.D.)between TraCE-AF simulation(a, c)and observation(Merged CMAP-GPCP; b, d). (a, b)Annual mean precipitation rate(mm/day); (c, d)Annual precipitation range(mm/day)and the Northern Hemisphere monsoon domain(red line)
图 4
TraCE-AF模拟的8.2 ka B. P. (a)和4.2 ka B. P. (b)这两次典型突变事件前后(突变后的时段减去突变前的时段)北半球夏季地表气温(℃)变化的空间分布
Figure 4.
Spatial distribution of changes(episode after abrupt climate event minus episode before abrupt climate event)of summer mean surface temperature(℃)in the Northern Hemisphere for two typical abrupt climate events(8.2 ka B. P. (a)and 4.2 ka B. P. (b)) derived from TraCE-AF outputs
图 5
TraCE-AF模拟的8.2 ka B. P. (a)和4.2 ka B. P. (b)这两次典型突变事件前后(突变后的时段减去突变前的时段)北半球夏季降水(mm/天)变化的空间分布，红线为季风区
Figure 5.
Spatial distribution of changes(episode after abrupt climate event minus episode before abrupt climate event)of summer mean precipitation(mm/day)in the Northern Hemisphere after two typical abrupt climate events(8.2 ka B. P. (a)and 4.2 ka B. P. (b)) derived from TraCE-AF outputs. The red line represents monsoon domain
图 6
TraCE-AF模拟的9200~8000 a B. P.(a，b)和4800~4000 a B. P.(c，d)这两次典型突变事件前后北半球季风降水EOF分解的第一模态及其时间序列
Figure 6.
The leading EOF mode and the corresponding principal component of NHMP during two typical abrupt climate events(9200~ 8000 a B.P. (a，b) and 4800~4000 a B. P. (c，d))derived from TraCE-AF outputs
图 7
TraCE-AF模拟的8.2 ka B. P. (a)和4.2 ka B. P. (b)这两次典型突变事件前后(突变后的时段减去突变前的时段)北半球夏季海平面气压场(填色，hPa)和850hPa风场(箭头，m/s)变化的空间分布
Figure 7.
Spatial distribution of changes(episode after abrupt climate event minus episode before abrupt climate event)of summer mean sea level pressure(shaded, hPa)and 850 hPa wind field(vector, m/s)in the Northern Hemisphere after two typical abrupt climate events(8.2 ka B. P. (a)and 4.2 ka B. P. (b))derived from TraCE-AF outputs
图 8
8.2 ka B. P.事件(9200~8000 a B. P.)TraCE单因子试验模拟的北半球季风降水EOF分解的第一模态及其时间序列
Figure 8.
The leading EOF mode and the corresponding principal component of NHMP during 8. 2 ka B. P. event(9200~8000 a B. P.) from TraCE single forcing experiment
图 9
4.2 ka B. P.事件(4800~4000 a B. P.)TraCE单因子试验模拟的北半球季风降水EOF分解的第一模态和时间序列
Figure 9.
The leading EOF mode and the corresponding principal component of NHMP during 4.2 ka B. P. event(4800~4000 a B. P.) from TraCE single forcing experiment
表 1
本研究所采用的5个TraCE-21ka气候模拟试验
Table 1.
Five TraCE-21ka climatic modeling experiments used in this study
序号 名称 简称 时间分辨率 使用时段(年) 1 全强迫试验 TraCE-AF 月平均 12040 2 温室气体敏感性试验 TraCE-GHG 10年平均 12040 3 地球轨道参数敏感性试验 TraCE-ORB 10年平均 12040 4 大陆冰盖敏感性试验 TraCE-ICE 10年平均 12040 5 淡水注入敏感性试验 TraCE-MWF 10年平均 12040 
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