DISCUSSION ON THE PRESENT CLIMATE CHANGE FROM WARM-DRY TO WARM WET IN NORTHWEST CHINA
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摘要: 由于全球显著变暖和水循环加快,使得中国西北主要是新疆地区于1987年气候发生突然变化,随着温度上升,降水量、冰川消融量和径流量连续多年增加,内陆湖泊水位显著上升,洪水灾害也迅猛增加,同时,植被有所改善,沙尘暴日数锐减,从而改变了19世纪末期至20世纪70年代的变暖变干趋势.以降水量增加超过蒸发量增加所导致的径流量增长及湖泊水位上升作为气候向暖湿转型的主要标准,西北地区目前的气候变化可分为3个区域,即1)显著转型区;2)轻度转型区;3)未转型区.作者初步认为,西北气候向暖湿转型可能是世纪性的,预期西北东部在21世纪上半期也会向暖湿转变,但预测有较大的不确定性.Abstract: Under the global warming, mainly in northwest China, the climate was basically characterized by the development of warm dry since the end of the little ice age until 1980s. A climatic mutation to warm wet happened in 1987. Since 1980s, air temperature has been increasing more rapidly. The average annual temperature during 1987 to 2000 had risen by 0.7℃ as compared with that during 1961 to 1986. Nevertheless, with the rising of temperature, precipitation and glacial melt water increase rapidly widespread. As compared with the period from 1961 to 1986, the average precipitation during 1987 to 2000 increased by 22% in the north Xinjiang, 33% in the south Xinjiang, and 10% to 20%, the middle and west Hexi Corridor area and some areas in the Qinghai Xizang Plateau, but most of the increasing precipitation falled on the Tianshan Mountains, the Qilian Mountains and other mountains with few actual records. For the increase of glacial melt water, No. One glacier at the source area of the rmqi River which has had field measurements and monitoring for several decades is taken as an example, the average annual melt water from 1985 to 2001 increased by 84.2% as compared with that during the years from 1958 to 1985. Whereas in the east region of northwest China, the conditions were in the opposite, it was still under the warm dry climate, precipitation decreasesd by 5% to 15% and the draught occurred frequently during the compared periods as above mentioned.
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Key words:
- climate change /
- warm dry /
- warm wet /
- change of climatic pattern
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