Study about influence of the Holocene volcanic eruptions on temperature variation trend by simulation
Wan Lingfeng1,2,3,4, Liu Jian1,2,4, Gao Chaochao5, Sun Weiyi1, Ning Liang1,4,6, Yan Mi1,4,6
1. Key Laboratory for Virtual Geographic Environment of Ministry of Education, State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base of Geographical Environment Evolution of Jiangsu Province, Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu;
2. Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory for Numerical Simulation of Large Scale Complex Systems, School of Mathematical Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu;
3. The Institute for Advanced Ocean Study of Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, Shandong;
4. Open Studio for the Simulation of Ocean-Climate-Isotope, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(Qingdao), Qingdao 266237, Shandong;
5. Department of Environmental Science, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, Zhejiang;
6. State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Science, Xi'an 710061, Shaanxi
摘要 全新世气候变化模拟对了解气候变化的特征和驱动机制具有重要意义。而利用地球系统模式CESM对全新世气候进行瞬变模拟的研究至今还是空白。同时前人只考虑地球轨道参数、温室气体、大陆冰盖、融水这4种外强迫因子作用的模拟结果和集成重建的全新世全球年平均温度的变化呈相反的趋势，尤其是在5.00~0.15 ka B.P.时段差异最为显著，被称为全新世"温度悖论"，至于其原因至今尚无定论。因此，文章利用CESM1.0.3，并考虑更全面的外强迫（地球轨道参数、太阳辐射、火山喷发、温室气体、土地利用/土地覆被）对全新世气候变化进行瞬变模拟。基于本文模拟结果分析发现全强迫试验模拟的全球范围合成年平均温度与Marcott等（2013）集成重建的全球年平均温度在5.00~0.15 ka B.P.时段的变化趋势基本一致，均下降0.50℃左右，有效地化解了5.00~0.15 ka B.P.时段的"温度悖论"。研究还发现，此降温趋势主要是由火山喷发外强迫作用导致的，在此时段火山喷发外强迫导致了0.86℃的降温效应，温室气体强迫作用导致0.38℃的升温趋势，而其他外强迫的贡献较小，合计约为-0.02℃。5.00~0.15 ka B.P.时段火山喷发导致降温趋势的原因在于连续增强的火山气溶胶改变了地表辐射平衡，使得地表接收的太阳辐射减少和射出长波辐射增加。
Abstract：The climate simulation is vital for understanding the characteristic and driving mechanism of the Holocene climate change. The Community Earth System Model(CESM) is the state-of-the-art earth system model for climate simulation. But it has not been used in previous Holocene climate simulation. There are opposite trend of global annual mean surface temperature between simulated and reconstructed in previous Holocene study. The most significant trend difference have been shown during 5.00~0.15 ka B.P. This phenomenon has been called the Holocene temperature conundrum. However, the reason of it remains controversial. In previous transient simulations, only four kinds of external forcing factors(namely, the Earth's orbital parameters, greenhouse gas, meltwater flux, continental ice sheets) have been considered. However, the Holocene climate change have also been influenced by other external forcing factors, such as the total solar insolation, land use/land cover, volcanic eruptions. Therefore, in this study, the CESM and the new external forcing factors have been used to do the Holocene transient simulation. Seven simulation experiments, which are ORB, TSI_ORB, GHG_ORB, LUCC_ORB, VOL_ORB, CTRL and AF respectively for the Holocene climate change have been designed in this study. The external forcings in the CTRL experiment are all constants. Only the Earth's orbital parameters have been changed in the ORB experiment. In the TSI_ORB experiment, the VOL_ORB experiment, the GHG_ORB experiment, and the LUCC_ORB experiment have changed the total solar insolation, volcanic eruptions, greenhouse gases, and land use/land cover, respectively, at the same time, the Earth's orbital parameters also have been changed. So they are all double forcing experiments. The five external forcing factors above-mentioned all have been changed in the AF experiment.Then, the temperature evolution has been analyzed. It shows that the trend of global annual mean surface temperature in the AF run is nearly the same as the reconstruction during 5.00~0.15 ka B.P. Both of them have cooling about 0.50℃. Thus the temperature conundrum have been reconciled successfully. The cooling trend is mainly attributed to the volcanic forcing. It has cooling about 0.86℃ in the VOL_ORB run. The greenhouse gases forcing can induce about 0.38℃ warming. The contributions of other external forcing factors are relatively small(total is about -0.02℃). The radiation balance at surface have been changed(the received solar flux reducing and emitted longwave flux increasing) by the volcanic eruptions during 5.00~0.15 ka B.P.
万凌峰, 刘健, 高超超, 孙炜毅, 宁亮, 严蜜. 全新世火山喷发对温度变化趋势影响的模拟研究[J]. 第四纪研究, 2020, 40(6): 1597-1610.
Wan Lingfeng, Liu Jian, Gao Chaochao, Sun Weiyi, Ning Liang, Yan Mi. Study about influence of the Holocene volcanic eruptions on temperature variation trend by simulation. Quaternary Sciences, 2020, 40(6): 1597-1610.
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