Climate change， fiscal balance and dynastical cycles in China over the past 2000 years
Wei Zhudeng1,2, Fang Xiuqi2, Su Yun2
1. School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu;
2. Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875
Abstract：Quantitatively investigating the relationship between climate change and human society merits more empirical exploration, from a deep time perspective. This paper takes the whole China during 220 BC~1910 A.D. as the study area and research period, aiming to analyze the long-term temporal patterns for the relationship among climate change, fiscal balance and dynastical cycles in China over the past 2000 years. In order to achieve this purpose, the paper used six key reconstructed proxies, including two temperature anomaly series of the whole China (1~1910 A.D.) and the Eastern China (210 BC~1910 A.D.), precipitation of Eastern China (101~1910 A.D.), fiscal grade sequence (220 BC~1910 A.D.), durations of each dynasty and the 10-year average number of coexisting regimes in historical China. Sequences comparison and multiple statistical tools such as FFT low-pass filter, wavelet and cross-wavelet analysis and regression model are also used to explore the periodic resonance and correlation between climate change and fiscal balance, the synergistic effect of temperature and precipitation change on fiscal balance, and the background of climate and fiscal balance during dynastical alternations. It is found that fluctuation of fiscal balance had multiple periodicities ranging from 40 years to 320 years in China during 220 BC~1910 A.D. The period of 80~100 years is the most statistically significant and basically distributed temporally throughout the study period. The fiscal cycle shortened in the period of social turbulence and frequent dynastic changes, and prolonged in the period of peace and stability. Throughout the past 2000 years, the length of the fiscal periodicity displayed a growing trend, with the transition period during 1000~1200 A.D. Moreover, fiscal balance was positively associated significantly with temperature at the predominant bands of 250~280 years, and with precipitation at the three bands of 60~80 years, 80~100 years and 160 years. On the scale of 10~30 years, the synergistic effect of temperature change and precipitation change on fiscal balance is significant. On the 30-year scale, when taking all of the temperature, precipitation and first-order lag of fiscal balance as predicting variables, the explanatory power of regression model can reach as high as 27.4%. However, it is related to the spatial range of climate sequences and analysis period. Compared with temperature change, precipitation is more suitable for explaining the historical fiscal balance cycle in China on the 10 to 30-year scale. Besides, it is noted that most of the fiscal sufficient periods corresponded to the prosperous periods, but the fiscal deficiency periods might both appear in the crisis/turbulent periods and the prosperous periods. Before the Ming and Qing Dynasties, most prosperous periods occurred in the centennial-scale warm period, whiles most turbulent periods occurred in the centennial-scale cold period. Although there was no consistent temporal correspondence among climatic warm/cold periods, duration of the dynasties and the number of coexisting regimes on the centennial scale over the past 2000 years, 70% dynastical alternations corresponded to cold stages or relatively dry stages and fiscal deficiency periods at the decadal to multidecade scale.
魏柱灯, 方修琦, 苏筠. 过去2000年中国的气候变化、财政周期与朝代更迭[J]. 第四纪研究, 2020, 40(5): 1180-1192.
Wei Zhudeng, Fang Xiuqi, Su Yun. Climate change， fiscal balance and dynastical cycles in China over the past 2000 years. Quaternary Sciences, 2020, 40(5): 1180-1192.
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2020, Vol. 40 
